The expenditures of family planning organizations is calculated in USD annually. (In the case of Hungarian organizations like the BOCS Foundation itself, we calculate in HUF first, and use the exchange rates given by the annual reviews of “MNB Középárfolyam figyelő” for conversion.) We regard part of this as indirect costs (e.g. accounting), so we only calculate with ssss% of the spendings:

year 20xx: xxxx USD → its ssss%: yyyy USD

It is expedient to take inflation into account, which results in earlier spendings to worth more in the present. This makes it possible to use the relations of a fresh report on the efficiency of spendings in the case of earlier expenses. This kind of value tracking may be calculated using valorization multipliers. Such multipliers are derived from the related appendices of government decrees. (In the case of BOCS Foundation, we use the related appendices of Hungarian decrees.^[1]) Thus, the above values are modified in the following way compared to previous years: zzzz USD

In the next step, we use global data to estimate the cost efficiency of efforts aimed at preventing unintended pregnancies. According to the 2017 report of the UNFPA, the global average cost of preventing an unintended pregnancy for a year is 40.4 USD.^[2]

The BOCS Foundation is a full member of the European network Inspire (formerly EuroNGOs), which is a UNFPA partner, and for this reason, BOCS may use the UNFPA data for its calculations about its work. (Since its working methods are similar, and the price level and wages are lower in Hungary, its efficiency is even better.) We use UNFPA data for the calculations of other organizations in our standard as well.

Using the approach detailed above, based on the spendings related to the work of organizations in the field of family planning, the number of prevented unintended pregnancies per year is: z

What percentage of the unintended pregnancies ends in the birth of the unwanted child? According to the latest data, 39% of unintended pregnancies ended in the birth of the unwanted child between 2007 and 2009,^[3] and 32% of them ended so between 2010 and 2014.^[4] Therefore, based on the year under review, 32% or 39% of the z number of the prevented unintended pregnancies attributed to the work of family planning organizations would have resulted in the birth of the unwanted child, so they have prevented c number of unwanted births during this time.

According to the World Bank, the global carbon footprint is 4,981 tons per year (the most recent available data is from 2014).^[5] This is the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by an average human in a year, calculated in carbon dioxide equivalent. According to the data of the World Bank, the average life expectancy in the world in 2014 was 71,742 years.^[6] Based on these, the following formula may be used to assess the yearly GHG emissions prevented by the work of family planning organizations per year:

Number of unborn unwanted children c (capita) x average carbon footprint f (tonCO₂e/year) x average life expectancy A (years) = G

G=c x f x A

Since the per capita carbon footprint may be predicted to decrease, we take the following into consideration to make our calculations more precise: in 2011, the European Communities agreed that compared to the levels of 1990, they will reduce their carbon emissions by 20% by 2020,  by 40% by 2030, by 60% by 2040, and by 80% by 2050.^[7][8] According to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, this level of reduction has to be reached on a global scale in order to achieve the main goal of the Paris Agreement, which is limiting global average temperature increase at 2°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.^[9]

Globally, the 1990 per capita carbon footprint was 4,194 tonnes, in 2014 it was 4,97, and the expected  2050 global per capita carbon footprint will be 0,84 tonnes, which is 20% of the 1990 level. Between 2014 and 2050, we are assuming that emission levels will decrease according to a linear function, from 4,981 tonnes per year to 0,84 tonnes per year, and then it will stabilize at that level.

Thus, the above G value changes to QFPC tonCO₂e.

Sources:

^[1] Hungarian Bulletin, 2018/32 , page 4203.,
http://www.kozlonyok.hu/nkonline/MKPDF/hiteles/MK18032.pdf
^[2] UNFPA Supplies Annual Report 2017, UNFPA, 2018, pp. 14-15.,
https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/UNFPA_Supplies_Annual_Report_2017_FINAL.pdf
^[3] Singh S et al., Abortion Worldwide: A Decade of Uneven Progress, New York: Guttmacher Institute, 2009., 53. o.,
https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/abortion-worldwide.pdf
^[4] Singh S et al., Abortion Worldwide 2017: Uneven Progress and Unequal Access, New York: Guttmacher Institute, 2018., p. 52.,
https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/abortion-worldwide-2017.pdf
^[5] CO₂ emissions (metric tons per capita), The World Bank Group,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC
^[6] Life expectancy at birth, total (years), The World Bank Group,
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN
^[7] R. Andreas Kraemer, Roadmap for a Low-Carbon Economy by 2050, 2011, http://ecologic.eu/3960
^[8] 2050 low-carbon economy, European Commission Cliate Action, Climate strategies & targets,
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en
^[9] Gupta, S.; et al., “Chapter 13: Policies, instruments, and co-operative arrangements”, Box 13.7 The range of the difference between emissions in 1990 and emission allowances in 2020/2050 for various GHG concentration levels for Annex I and non-Annex I countries as a group , in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007